Political psychology, forecasting
Philip Tetlock
b. 1954
Calibration improves only when predictions are written down before the outcome and revisited afterwards. The organisational version is a decision log that survives reorganisation.
Read alongside: Sense
- Start with
- Superforecasting (2015)
- Where they resist the book
- Scoring works where questions resolve. Most adaptive challenges never resolve cleanly enough to be scored.
Works worth the time
Superforecasting · 2015
With Dan Gardner. The practical half: write the prediction down first, revisit it afterwards.
Read further
- Wikipedia: Philip E. Tetlock ↗
Wikipedia
Where Tetlock appears
V. The PracticeCritical thinking
Keep the account of why you were wrong.
Forecast, record, review. Tetlock's work shows that calibration improves only when predictions are written down before the outcome and revisited afterwards. The organisational version is a decision log that survives reorganisation.