Risk, probability

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

b. 1960

Silent evidence is the discipline: notice what the data could not have contained, and what survivorship has quietly removed from view.

Read alongside: Sense

Start with
The Black Swan (2007)
Where they resist the book
Taleb has little patience for organisational practice of any kind; his remedy is structural robustness, not attention.

Works worth the time

Antifragile · 2012

What gains from disorder rather than merely surviving it — a harder standard than resilience.

Where Taleb appears

III. SenseCritical thinking

The map is evidence about the mapmaker.

When the map no longer fits the terrain, the useful question is not which to trust but what the mismatch reveals — about the assumptions, the incentives, and the reporting line that produced the map. Silent evidence is the discipline here: notice what the data could not have contained.